Validation of PRiMeR in predicting 5-year T2D risk. (A) Schematic representation of UKB T2D cohort, showing the inclusion criteria, the 37 risk factors included in our analysis, and the definition of the 5-year T2D onset labels. (B) Comparison of the mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) scores for 5-year T2D onset labels obtained using PRiMeR, its linear variant (PRiMeR-LIN), a predictor based on multivariable MR (MVMR-based) and univariate MR (UVMR-based). Error bars denote standard errors across 50 random train/test splits (Methods). (C) Scaled contributions to risk learned by PRiMeR as function of observed values for glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c), glucose, HDL, and waist-to-hip ratio (WHR). Risk reference thresholds are annotated in red.
